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Australia has spent big to attract swathes of Indian tourists to its shores, signed a free-trade deal with post-Brexit Britain and uncovered new Middle East markets during its 30-month trade rift with China.

Still, outside iron ore and other key commodities, there’s been substantial pain for exporters. For a small and open economy like Australia’s, branching away from the emerging global superpower is easier to imagine than realize.

China’s inability to source its massive iron ore requirements outside Western Australia’s Pilbara region means that it’s still Australia’s biggest trade partner by a long way, despite the diplomatic freeze.

Australia Learns There’s No Replacement for the Chinese Consumer

But for other key industries, there’s been no simple substitute for Chinese consumers of quality lobster and wine or its big-spending tourists and students, who’ve also been kept away by Covid-19 restrictions. 

While there are some signs tensions are thawing — new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met President Xi Jinping last week, the first tete-a-tete between the countries’ leaders since 2019 — Australian businesses aren’t banking on restrictions easing anytime soon.

Two years after China imposed tariffs ranging to more than 200% on Australia wine, vintners are still processing the messy breakup with what was its most lucrative export market, previously worth about A$1.2 billion ($802 million) a year.

Mitchell Taylor, who runs South Australia’s Taylors Wines, said the size of the adjustment required can’t be underestimated.

“While we’ve found new little opportunities, there was never anything that could replace a market of that size and scale, particularly at the luxury end,” he said. Taylors Wine previously used to get about a fifth of its annual export revenue from China alone.

“With some of the nibbles we’re getting, we’ve probably recovered about half of that.”

Taylor is looking at destinations including Singapore, South Korea and North America. While India might one day emerge as a big market, that’s probably at least a decade away due to access issues and tariffs, he said.

Meanwhile, the UK — once seen as a prime market for cheaper product — has now surpassed China to become the top destination for higher-end Australian wine.

“We’re now getting our feet back on the ground,” he said. “It’s not all doom and gloom, there’s certainly these opportunities to build.”

Other luxury wine producers have taken a different approach to being frozen out of China. Treasury Wine Estates Ltd., best known for its Penfolds brand, in September started producing in China — a move that’s allowed it circumvent the restrictions on Australian-made tipples.

While Taylor hopes relations improve, banking on China alone is too risky a strategy in the long-term, he said.

“I think we’ve got to be very realistic and cautious about China,” he said. “We’d need a lot of reassurance and we’d want to hear a lot of positives.”